May Straw Poll Results: Warren Leaps to the Front, Harris Still Strong

May 31, 2019

74 Percent of Our Subscribers Favor One of the Women Candidates as Nominee

These Are the Votes of the Volunteers, Small Donors & Resistance Organizers of the Democratic Coalition Who Will Decide the 2020 Nomination

By Al Giordano

In Issue #77 of the newsletter, on May 6, I wrote:

“‘Show, not tell’ is the credo of good writers and campaigns alike. Elizabeth Warren has consistently shown that she knows how to organize a team. And not just in her machine-gun fire rollout of bold policy proposals, but also in the organization she has built, investing up front in twice as many field staffers in Iowa as any other candidate, and twice as many nationwide.”

It’s evident from these results that others are seeing the same movement by Senator Warren.

In our last straw poll, in February (we will do another one sooner this time, right after the June 26 and 27 Democratic presidential debates), Kamala Harris led with 45 percent, Warren placed with 17 percent and Amy Klobuchar showed with 8 percent. 73 percent favored one of the women candidates then. One takeaway from this poll is that women and men of the real Democratic base want a woman as nominee and seem to be looking to back the one who they see as having the best shot to derail the two septuagenarian men who are putative “frontrunners.” These results are not, in that sense, bad for Harris, nor for Klobuchar or Kirsten Gillibrand: whichever of them “gets hot at the end” as the early states start to vote will be in good position to unite that biggest part of the Democratic base behind her.

At the same time, previous “flavors of the month” like Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg have seen their support rise and then come back down to earth again. They and the other younger men in the contest are like kittens at the restaurant kitchen door, waiting for milk to spill. If Bernie Sanders continues his downward spiral (“he’s tanking” is a commonly used phrase these days; people who months ago had PTSD flashbacks at the mention of his name are now giddy watching his stumbles) that could also set up Biden to tumble down, too. Those two guys need each other to scare their respective supporters into settling for them. But if one ends up being the “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up” guy, the other could soon join him there. And that’s when that segment of the primary electorate that prefers the nomination of man – let’s not deny they exist, they very much do – might look to Beto or Pete or someone else.

But it’s still way too early to know anything for sure. What is clear is that the people who do the heavy lifting of organizing and selecting Democratic nominees – of whom our subscribers are highly representative – like both Warren and Harris a lot, and seem fired up and ready to go for whichever of the women US Senators in the contest runs the best campaign between now and the early primaries.

The first debates are June 26 and 27, and we’ll be live blogging them for subscribers here at Organize & Win. If you subscribe by then we hope you will join us in it.

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