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How the Results of Sunday’s Super Bowl Might Impact Monday’s Caucuses in Iowa
February 1, 2020

Did Joni Ernst Just Unwittingly Revive Joe Biden’s Iowa Campaign?
January 31, 2020

Is Biden in Danger of Not Meeting 15% Threshold in Iowa’s Caucuses?
January 29, 2020

Sanders’ Early-State Polling Edge Would Earn Him Fewer Delegates than Losing Did in 2016
January 28, 2020

Why the NY Times Dual Endorsement Might Matter in Iowa
January 21, 2020

Warren, for First Time, Surpasses 50% in Our Nomination Straw Poll
January 21, 2020

Vote in Our January Post-Debate Democratic Nomination Straw Poll
January 15, 2020

January 14 Debate Watch Party with Live Commentary & Analysis
January 14, 2020

Warren’s Closing Argument & the Progressive Civil War
January 13, 2020

December Straw Poll: Warren Back on Top as Biden & Klobuchar Grow
December 24, 2019

Vote in the December Post-Debate Democratic Straw Poll
December 19, 2019

December 19 Debate Watch Party with Live Analysis & Commentary
December 19, 2019

Thursday Debate Preview: The Post-Kamala Primary
December 18, 2019

Michael Bloomberg Did a Hit Job on Kamala Harris: Here’s Why
November 29, 2019

Vote in the November Post-Debate Democratic Nomination Straw Poll
November 21, 2019

November 20 Debate Watch Party with Live Analysis & Commentary
November 20, 2019

Debate Preview: Buttigieg’s Moment – or Pete-ing Too Soon?
November 20, 2019

Why Not Hillary? A Deadlocked Convention Might Produce a Surprise
November 14, 2019

Live November 1 at 7:30 ET: Watch the Candidates at the Iowa Democrats’ Liberty & Justice Dinner
November 1, 2019

October Straw Poll Results: Grassroots Opinion Leaders Still Want Warren or Harris
October 21, 2019

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Useful Data Sources

 

FiveThirtyEight – Nate Silver

The Cycle – Rachel Biticofer

The Upshot at NY Times

Decision Desk HQ

CBS News Battleground Tracker Poll

The Economist US Elections Forecast

The Guardian’s Mail-In Voter Tracker

Plan Your Vote: State-by-State Mail-in Vote Deadlines & Rules (NBC News)

Sam Wang

The Cook Report

Taegen Goddard’s Interactive Electoral Vote Map

LeanTossUp 2020 Presidential Model

Daily Kos Elections

Larry Sabato

Inside Elections

Federal Elections Commission Data

Open Secrets

The Green Papers

National Democratic Redistricting Committee

PredictIt National Politics (all categories)

Archive

  • 2020 (29)
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    • February (12)
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  • 2019 (61)
    • December (4)
    • November (7)
    • October (4)
    • September (5)
    • August (6)
    • July (11)
    • June (12)
    • May (5)
    • April (1)
    • February (2)
    • January (4)
  • 2018 (5)
    • December (2)
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Recent Posts

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  • Biden’s VP, Costs & Benefits, Part II: The Crimefighters on the Short List June 25, 2020
  • Issue #123: How Trump Lost the War Room June 4, 2020
  • Biden’s VP, Costs & Benefits, Part I: Warren’s Successor Will Not Be a Republican April 20, 2020
  • Election Night Self-Quarantine Cabaret: A Backstage Gathering March 17, 2020
  • The Mikado Debate: The ‘Lord High Executioner’ vs. the ‘Lord High Everything Else’ March 16, 2020
  • Debate Watch in a Time of Coronavirus: Live Coverage March 15, 2020
  • Last Stand on the Shipwreck Coast: Introduction to Today’s Primary Projections March 10, 2020
  • Joe Biden Is the Presumptive Nominee March 5, 2020
  • A New Democratic Nomination Straw Poll Is Here: Voting Ends Friday February 26, 2020
  • South Carolina Debate Watch Party with Live Commentary & Analysis February 25, 2020
  • Nevada Debate Watch: Will Bloomberg “Flame on?” – or Flame Out? February 19, 2020
  • July 2020: A Contested Convention Scenario February 16, 2020
  • The Incredible Shrinking Sanders Vote: Iowa & New Hampshire Exposed the Dangers of a Diminishing Base February 12, 2020
  • The Results of Our First Post-Iowa Straw Poll February 10, 2020
  • Vote in February’s First Democratic Nomination Straw Poll February 8, 2020
  • New Hampshire Primary Debate: Live Analysis & Commentary February 7, 2020
  • The Battle of the College-Town Mayors as Seen Through a ‘Discovery Channel’ Lens February 7, 2020
  • Self-Care in the Age of Election Anxiety & The Super Bowl ‘Snackadium’ February 6, 2020
  • Eight Key Data Points We Already Know Out of Iowa Have Changed the Game February 4, 2020
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