Results of Our First 2020 Nomination Straw Poll

December 17, 2018

56 Percent of Subscribers Favor a Woman to Be the Nominee in 2020

That’s 75% of Those Who Have a Preference: Kamala Harris Tops Survey

By Al Giordano

Caveat Emptor: These are very early results from fewer than a quarter of our subscribers who participated in last month’s 2020 Democratic presidential nomination straw poll. These results differ measurably from the “name recognition” surveys of likely primary or caucus goers, which show three white men in the lead – two of them over 70.

And yet these results are far more indicative of where the dynamics of the 2020 nomination contest will eventually go: Our subscribers are the grassroots organizers and small donors who historically have determined Democratic nomination battles – those who do the heavy lifting of winning elections. This straw poll tells us more about where this contest is heading because it surveys the “early adopters” (that’s you) who every four years organize and win the Democratic presidential nomination.

If you did not vote in last month’s straw poll, please don’t complain about the results. If you’re not a subscriber and therefore couldn’t vote, make sure you do subscribe before we conduct the next survey at the end of December.

This straw poll will happen every month, exclusively for subscribers to my América newsletter, but the results will be published for the wider public on (not yet open to anyone except 2019 subscribers), where together we will track and analyze the 2020 nomination competition. Here are the survey results by percentage points, in order of preference:

For the record, I’m one of the 19 percent who voted “no preference.” I’m here to listen more than to spin, and even more so to work to figure out what will happen next and share it with you, the grassroots workers, before others see it coming.

After all, the people who do the organizing work are going to pick the nominee: we always do. Those who just want to debate and not persuade will always complain about election results that they were too slothful themselves to do the hard work of changing in advance. This newsletter attracts the other kind of person: She and he that, sleeves rolled up, do the hard work of grassroots electoral democracy.

My view is that before picking a favorite, every decent human being ought to first resolve to support – without whine or complaint – whomever wins the Democratic nomination: Enough already with the “only my candidate can win” tantrum that then refuses to support and work to elect an eventual nominee in a childish attempt to make such a petulant declaration true, if only retroactively. That is so, well, 2016. We’re all living with the consequences of those selfish politics today. The path out of this mess is going to require us all to be better going forward.

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