Right About 2018, Rachel Bitecofer Tells How Trump Will Be Defeated in 2020

July 7, 2019

Who She Sees as “Viable”  – and not – to Win the Democratic Nomination

How Bernie Sanders Could End Up Causing a ‘Centrist’ Nominee

By Al Giordano

(Issue #84 of the Al Giordano’s América newsletter went out to subscribers on Sunday evening, July 7. It’s six pages of work but only the first three paragraphs are available to the general public here. To gain a 2019 subscription, donate $70 to the nonprofit Fund for Authentic Journalism and you will also get a free Organize & Win account, be able to vote on our monthly presidential straw poll, join our special events like debate watch parties, submit comments backstage with the rest of the subscribers, and enjoy the same full access to all the content here. See you there!)

In Issue #67 prior to last November’s midterm elections my projection of a 40 US House seat pickup by Democrats came true by exactly that number. But I offered that projection just a day or two prior to the vote.

The first statistician to see that coming and say so out loud and with precision back in July of 2018 was Christopher Newport University professor Rachel Bitecofer who introduced her theory of “negative partisanship.” I credited her in that same Issue #67 with having cracked the code of the midterm elections. And her model proved prophetic. Negative partisanship, in a sentence, means that voters of the party out of power tend to be more highly motivated to turn out than they are when their own party has possession of the White House.

Bitecofer is at it again, with 2020 in her sights.

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